Via Community News Service, a University of Vermont journalism internship, for The Bridge
MONTPELIER — In the August primary, voters in Montpelier and East Montpelier chose Aly Richards to be their Democratic nominee for governor over Amanda Janoo.
But Richards’ winning margin in those two towns didn’t mirror statewide results. Janoo won 44.6% of the vote to Richards’ 42.3%. Janoo is now vying to unseat Republican Gov. Phil Scott, a central Vermont native and the nation’s most popular governor.
As Election Day approaches, capital-area Democrats who chose their neighbor — Montpelier resident, and more moderate, Richards — will decide whether to support Janoo, a progressive economist, or stay the course with Scott.
Voters who seek to balance out the state’s Democrat-controlled legislature may opt to stick with the status quo, said Bert Johnson, a political science professor from Middlebury College. At the same time, he said, Janoo could win over voters who decide that after 10 years of Scott, they’re no better off.
“The question is whether people think it’s time for a change now,” he said.
Back in August, the choice before voters was between two candidates who had never held elected office but had varying political experience.
A Newbury native who now lives in the state capital, Richards spent her career advocating to bolster Vermont’s child care system. As the former CEO of the grassroots advocacy group Let’s Grow Kids, she was a key player in passing Act 76, a measure that introduced a new payroll tax to support child care programs and offer financial assistance to families. Scott vetoed the measure, but lawmakers overrode him.
Janoo, a Burlington resident, grew up in South Strafford and has a master’s of philosophy in development economics from the University of Cambridge. After returning to Vermont, she became the economics and policy lead for Wellbeing Economy Alliance, a group that helps governments across the globe to redesign their economic systems to benefit people and the planet.
She also served on the board for Fund Vermont’s Future, a coalition that led the ongoing fight in Montpelier for income-tax increases on Vermont’s top earners.
In the primary, Richards won 53.8% of the vote in the capital city to Janoo’s 40.1%. Janoo performed nearly identically in East Montpelier but was bested by Richards, who got 54.4% of the vote, according to results from the Vermont Secretary of State’s Office.
But it’s still unclear how voters may decide between Janoo and Scott, who is seeking a sixth two-year term. If he wins on Nov. 3, he will be the longest-serving governor in Vermont history.
According to the Vermont Secretary of State, voters in the state have not unseated an incumbent governor in more than 60 years. Scott has routinely polled as one of the most popular governors in the country, though a recent Vermont Public poll found that his approval ratings have dropped to 45%, down 15 points since 2022.
At the Capital City Farmers Market on a recent Saturday, Janoo’s campaign had a large table and a team of volunteers. Scott’s campaign had no visible presence.
People attending the market kept their opinions on the race close to the vest. Many residents, when asked about how they voted in the primary and their plans for the general election, declined to answer. Others said they were undecided or not comfortable disclosing their plans.
Maeve McCurdy, 27 of Montpelier, who volunteers for Janoo’s campaign and voted for her in the primary, said her friends chose Richards because of her experience in politics. Now, McCurdy said, they are planning on voting for Janoo.
“My friends who thought Richards would be a better candidate in the primary were mostly going off of her track record, which for me, too, was a pro for Aly,” McCurdy said. “But to me, it felt like I didn’t know what else Aly stood for.”
McCurdy expressed confidence that Janoo has widespread support in Montpelier, saying that when she knocked doors, she met more Janoo supporters than Scott supporters.
Montpelier resident David Hatnett, who is volunteering for Janoo, declined to talk about who he voted for in the primary. But he said at the time, he vowed to vote for whichever Democrat won in the general election.
“This state needs to see some change, and with Phil Scott in office we haven’t seen enough,” he said.
Hatnett also mentioned H.727, a bill proposed earlier this year that would have regulated artificial intelligence data centers in the state. The bill passed the House and Senate by, but Scott vetoed it, saying Vermont already “provides substantial regulatory authority” that would prevent the data centers’ harmful impacts.
“This bill creates an unacceptable precedent which will have much broader consequences for economic opportunity and long-term competitiveness in Vermont,” the governor’s veto message said at the time.
Hatnett referenced data centers as a huge issue for voters, including himself, because of the impacts the centers have on the environment and the wellbeing of people around them.
“What I hear the most from people is, (a data center) puts in jeopardy what makes this state, in their opinion, so special,” he said.
Paul Ohlson, 82, of Montpelier said he’s a Democrat who has voted for Scott in the past. But this time around, he said he’s voting for Janoo.
“He’s a very warm, nice human being, but I think we need something more right now,” Ohlson said of Scott. “I think (Janoo) has a different skill set. I think she understands how economies work. I think Phil understands how business works.”
Scott’s campaign, however, seems confident that the governor will win over at least some Democrats, particularly those who have voted for him in the past.
“The Governor’s message of commonsense mainstream ideas that will make Vermont more affordable and help to grow our economy is one that resonates across the political spectrum,” Emma Shouldice, a Scott campaign staffer, wrote in an email.
Shouldice acknowledged that some voters may be seeking change but dismissed the notion that Scott isn’t the person for the job.
“With more balance and two more years, the Governor is confident we can get more done to make Vermont a place everyone (can) afford to live, work, raise a family and retire,” she wrote.
Johnson, the Middlebury professor, said it’s likely that Richards supporters will pick Janoo in the general election. Fewer voters turn out for primaries, and those who do are likely to stick with the party line, he said.
“If they voted at all in the primary the pattern that we see is Democratic primary voters vote for Democrats in the general,” he said.
But Johnson also acknowledged that some Democrats will go for Scott, calling Vermont a place “that votes for the person over the party.” In that sense, Vermont is a “moralistic state” in political science terms, where people are less likely to adhere strongly to their party, Johnson said.
Scott could benefit from this, he said.
“People know him, and I mean that literally,” Johnson said. “People have actually met him; that’s only possible in such a small state.”
As the election creeps closer, endorsements are rolling in the candidates. Janoo has received support from Vermont’s congressional delegation and Richards, her former opponent, who has also volunteered for her campaign. Scott has been endorsed by many politicians, including former Vermont governor Jim Douglas and lieutenant governor Brian Dubie, both Republicans.
Campaign contributions are another indicator of the race. Between Sept. 28 and Oct. 12, Janoo raised $181,671 to Scott’s $175,406, according to the most recent campaign finance filings. She also outraised him in September, reports show. Outside groups are also invested in the campaign, including A Stronger Vermont, a political action committee backed by the Republican Governors Association that has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Scott’s behalf.
So far, recent polls have shown different pictures of the race. A University of New Hampshire poll released Sept. 24 showed Janoo leading 49% to 43%, while a Vermont Public poll released days later found Scott ahead by 10 points among likely voters.
A State Navigate poll on Oct. 27 showed Scott leading 46% to 43%, within the poll’s margin of error.